2020 Candidate Speculation

[dc2london]

Ok so, tea.

I will poof this.

Bl****erg primary voters apparently think he is being unfairly pigeonholed due to his status as an old white male billionaire.
And some think he has locked up the "gun control" vote already bc he started Mayors Against Illegal Guns 20 years ago.

It was like a trip into Wonderland.

I have to say his campaign staff are absolute sweethearts and I thoroughly enjoyed conversing with them.

I told them in no uncertain terms they HAVE to get out in front on Stop and Frisk and make real effort with voters of color. I suggested a few nonprofits working with children who are repeat gun violence survivors in our area that they could go visit to listen and learn.

[LaRo422]

dc2london I know I’m new, so I hope this doesn’t come off as creepy, but I want to be you when I grow up lol. That sounds like a really cool opportunity and experience, and I think it’s really awesome you got to bring up such incredibly important topics. I hope they took it to heart.

[jaygee]

dc2london thanks for the 🍵. That does sound like bizarro world.

[cakewench]

Bernie is using his volunteers to go negative on Warren:

[cakewench]

WANT:

[cakewench]

Pete’s picked up another IA endorsement:

[punker1212]

Jan 12, 2020 7:51:36 GMT -6 cakewench said:

Bernie is using his volunteers to go negative on Warren:

Meh. I mean. This is what happens in elections. Am I naive to think all candidates have similar scripting? To me, these are actual criticisms against each candidate. And we all know the criticisms against Bernie. Too socialist. Too old. Too white. Etc.

[dc2london]

Another thing I told the fine young gentlemen with whom I spoke yesterday (following a question about why so many young people like Bernie):

I think grievance is a very powerful tool for politicians like Trump and Bernie, and they both use it very smartly. (This is not me comparing the two on any sort of moral grounds, or conflating their supporters, or saying this is the case for all of their supporters. But there is overlap--there are Trump voters who also like Bernie, and I think this is the crux of why).

Trump and Bernie both tell crowds that they've been taken advantage of by a system that actively works against their interests. Trump is more often speaking to white boomers who feel disenfranchised by a world that is changing so quickly around them and forcing them to make changes they are not prepared to make. But in terms of voters between the ages of 18 and ~40, Bernie is recognizing the fact that our generation really got screwed. We were taught that if we just worked hard, got a good education, and just didn't royally screw anything up we would have a prosperous future with a nice house, a reliable job, and a thriving 401k. That's what a lot of white middle class kids grew up genuinely believing was their future (myself included). The reality is that we graduated college into a disastrous job market and many of us weren't able to start our professional careers for, in some cases, years. We face record breaking student loan debt. We reached adulthood during an economic and housing crisis that saw many of us and many of our parents lose homes they worked so hard to buy. We face medical bankruptcy, obscenely high childcare costs, and now the very real possibility that while we are scraping by to support our own children, we then become responsible for the care of our aging parents whose retirement funds evaporated in the 2008 crash.

So, yeah, when someone who is an engaging speaker comes in and says, "That's a lot of bullshit, and I've got big, exciting, revolutionary ideas for how to fix it bc Y'ALL GOT SCREWED" it's a very compelling message.

What's interesting to me is that Warren and even Harris propose big, bold changes too but, if you notice, they tend to do it more from a, "We can and must do better" sort of optimistic stance. They talk more about the absurdity of the current situation than the grievance.

Or perhaps I'm completely full of beans.

[blurnette989]

I think that has a lot of merit dc2london.

[punker1212]

Jan 12, 2020 10:10:24 GMT -6 dc2london said:

Another thing I told the fine young gentlemen with whom I spoke yesterday (following a question about why so many young people like Bernie):

I think grievance is a very powerful tool for politicians like Trump and Bernie, and they both use it very smartly. (This is not me comparing the two on any sort of moral grounds, or conflating their supporters, or saying this is the case for all of their supporters. But there is overlap--there are Trump voters who also like Bernie, and I think this is the crux of why).

Trump and Bernie both tell crowds that they've been taken advantage of by a system that actively works against their interests. Trump is more often speaking to white boomers who feel disenfranchised by a world that is changing so quickly around them and forcing them to make changes they are not prepared to make. But in terms of voters between the ages of 18 and ~40, Bernie is recognizing the fact that our generation really got screwed. We were taught that if we just worked hard, got a good education, and just didn't royally screw anything up we would have a prosperous future with a nice house, a reliable job, and a thriving 401k. That's what a lot of white middle class kids grew up genuinely believing was their future (myself included). The reality is that we graduated college into a disastrous job market and many of us weren't able to start our professional careers for, in some cases, years. We face record breaking student loan debt. We reached adulthood during an economic and housing crisis that saw many of us and many of our parents lose homes they worked so hard to buy. We face medical bankruptcy, obscenely high childcare costs, and now the very real possibility that while we are scraping by to support our own children, we then become responsible for the care of our aging parents whose retirement funds evaporated in the 2008 crash.

So, yeah, when someone who is an engaging speaker comes in and says, "That's a lot of bullshit, and I've got big, exciting, revolutionary ideas for how to fix it bc Y'ALL GOT SCREWED" it's a very compelling message.

What's interesting to me is that Warren and even Harris propose big, bold changes too but, if you notice, they tend to do it more from a, "We can and must do better" sort of optimistic stance. They talk more about the absurdity of the current situation than the grievance.

Or perhaps I'm completely full of beans.

Totally. I’ve always been a big picture, systems thinker, so for me there is great appeal when discussing systemic overhaul va incremental changes.

[Minerva]

Jan 12, 2020 10:10:24 GMT -6 dc2london said:

Another thing I told the fine young gentlemen with whom I spoke yesterday (following a question about why so many young people like Bernie):

I think grievance is a very powerful tool for politicians like Trump and Bernie, and they both use it very smartly. (This is not me comparing the two on any sort of moral grounds, or conflating their supporters, or saying this is the case for all of their supporters. But there is overlap--there are Trump voters who also like Bernie, and I think this is the crux of why).

Trump and Bernie both tell crowds that they've been taken advantage of by a system that actively works against their interests. Trump is more often speaking to white boomers who feel disenfranchised by a world that is changing so quickly around them and forcing them to make changes they are not prepared to make. But in terms of voters between the ages of 18 and ~40, Bernie is recognizing the fact that our generation really got screwed. We were taught that if we just worked hard, got a good education, and just didn't royally screw anything up we would have a prosperous future with a nice house, a reliable job, and a thriving 401k. That's what a lot of white middle class kids grew up genuinely believing was their future (myself included). The reality is that we graduated college into a disastrous job market and many of us weren't able to start our professional careers for, in some cases, years. We face record breaking student loan debt. We reached adulthood during an economic and housing crisis that saw many of us and many of our parents lose homes they worked so hard to buy. We face medical bankruptcy, obscenely high childcare costs, and now the very real possibility that while we are scraping by to support our own children, we then become responsible for the care of our aging parents whose retirement funds evaporated in the 2008 crash.

So, yeah, when someone who is an engaging speaker comes in and says, "That's a lot of bullshit, and I've got big, exciting, revolutionary ideas for how to fix it bc Y'ALL GOT SCREWED" it's a very compelling message.

What's interesting to me is that Warren and even Harris propose big, bold changes too but, if you notice, they tend to do it more from a, "We can and must do better" sort of optimistic stance. They talk more about the absurdity of the current situation than the grievance.

Or perhaps I'm completely full of beans.

Nope, I think you are right on the money.

I don’t particularly care for the sort of populism that vilifies education and expertise, whether it is on the right or left. IMO, those movements eventually lead away from fact-based decision making and a valuation of human rights (particularly those of minority groups). I’d expect it from the most extreme Bernie Bros, but I find it troubling to see it coming more directly from Bernie’s campaign.

[punker1212]

Do you think Bernie vilifies education and expertise? I genuinely don’t see it. This is the guy who has been saying for years that he believes the scientists re climate change.

Honest question: where do most folks on this board consider themselves, demographics wise? Speaking from where I am in the rural rust belt, people are severely hurting. I moved to an area with extreme rural poverty. This was a blue collar, union proud small town that just keeps getting hit over and over by poor policies that favor the rich and corporations. I do think it is hard for more upper middle class populations to empathize with this demographic.

For reference, I moved from a mid size urban area to a rural area. From what I see, the biggest difference between rural and urban poverty is the availability of resources. Because I’m the rural area I’m in now there are basically none. People are relying on each other, whereas the urban area where I practiced community nursing still had a lot of poverty, but I had so many more resources to call upon to help people.

Anyway, my point is always that in the last election, the Democratic Party really didn’t have a good finger on the pulse of working Americans and it showed when a sociopath played upon their weaknesses and won an election he never should have.

Bernie empathizes with peoples struggles. That’s why he was so successful in building the current democratic platform- because he heard the issues that are most people’s realities.

To me, the biggest concern is that the Trump camp is very comfortable placing blame for their struggles on marginalized communities. And, on the other hand, marginalized communities are saying... “yeah this has been our struggle since forever, glad it’s finally on your radar”. I wish the Sanders campaign did a better job of having that conversation.

[bunnyfungo]

Jan 12, 2020 19:12:05 GMT -6 punker1212 said:

Do you think Bernie vilifies education and expertise? I genuinely don’t see it. This is the guy who has been saying for years that he believes the scientists re climate change.

Honest question: where do most folks on this board consider themselves, demographics wise? Speaking from where I am in the rural rust belt, people are severely hurting. I moved to an area with extreme rural poverty. This was a blue collar, union proud small town that just keeps getting hit over and over by poor policies that favor the rich and corporations. I do think it is hard for more upper middle class populations to empathize with this demographic.

For reference, I moved from a mid size urban area to a rural area. From what I see, the biggest difference between rural and urban poverty is the availability of resources. Because I’m the rural area I’m in now there are basically none. People are relying on each other, whereas the urban area where I practiced community nursing still had a lot of poverty, but I had so many more resources to call upon to help people.

Anyway, my point is always that in the last election, the Democratic Party really didn’t have a good finger on the pulse of working Americans and it showed when a sociopath played upon their weaknesses and won an election he never should have.

Bernie empathizes with peoples struggles. That’s why he was so successful in building the current democratic platform- because he heard the issues that are most people’s realities.

To me, the biggest concern is that the Trump camp is very comfortable placing blame for their struggles on marginalized communities. And, on the other hand, marginalized communities are saying... “yeah this has been our struggle since forever, glad it’s finally on your radar”. I wish the Sanders campaign did a better job of having that conversation.

I live in a rural area in the Midwest, and before that another rural area in the Midwest. There is absolutely a lack of resources. People often have to travel 30+ miles for a hospital or a grocery store. They *do* rely on each other. I think that’s where there’s a disconnect. I think they all lean republican because they think we don’t need government help. We can all just take care of our communities. When the Platte River and Missouri River flooded our town from two directions there were people out sandbagging all day. People donated water to the schools because the water treatment plant was (ironically) underwater so we could only use bottled. We raised money for families who lost their homes and took people in off the streets. It is the absolute best of America. But when those same people look at politicians they see the left as the enemy because they are trying to take their money and redistribute it or whatever nonsense Fox News is on about. They don’t want that. They want to take care of it at home with the 3000 other people in town that they know by name. It’s TOUGH to win them over. There needs to be a way to reach them and say, “I’m glad your community is taking care of each other, but this isn’t the case everywhere and we need to take care of those in communities who don’t have this kind of small town safety net.”

[punker1212]

Jan 12, 2020 20:15:45 GMT -6 bunnyfungo said:

Jan 12, 2020 19:12:05 GMT -6 punker1212 said:

Do you think Bernie vilifies education and expertise? I genuinely don’t see it. This is the guy who has been saying for years that he believes the scientists re climate change.

Honest question: where do most folks on this board consider themselves, demographics wise? Speaking from where I am in the rural rust belt, people are severely hurting. I moved to an area with extreme rural poverty. This was a blue collar, union proud small town that just keeps getting hit over and over by poor policies that favor the rich and corporations. I do think it is hard for more upper middle class populations to empathize with this demographic.

For reference, I moved from a mid size urban area to a rural area. From what I see, the biggest difference between rural and urban poverty is the availability of resources. Because I’m the rural area I’m in now there are basically none. People are relying on each other, whereas the urban area where I practiced community nursing still had a lot of poverty, but I had so many more resources to call upon to help people.

Anyway, my point is always that in the last election, the Democratic Party really didn’t have a good finger on the pulse of working Americans and it showed when a sociopath played upon their weaknesses and won an election he never should have.

Bernie empathizes with peoples struggles. That’s why he was so successful in building the current democratic platform- because he heard the issues that are most people’s realities.

To me, the biggest concern is that the Trump camp is very comfortable placing blame for their struggles on marginalized communities. And, on the other hand, marginalized communities are saying... “yeah this has been our struggle since forever, glad it’s finally on your radar”. I wish the Sanders campaign did a better job of having that conversation.

I live in a rural area in the Midwest, and before that another rural area in the Midwest. There is absolutely a lack of resources. People often have to travel 30+ miles for a hospital or a grocery store. They *do* rely on each other. I think that’s where there’s a disconnect. I think they all lean republican because they think we don’t need government help. We can all just take care of our communities. When the Platte River and Missouri River flooded our town from two directions there were people out sandbagging all day. People donated water to the schools because the water treatment plant was (ironically) underwater so we could only use bottled. We raised money for families who lost their homes and took people in off the streets. It is the absolute best of America. But when those same people look at politicians they see the left as the enemy because they are trying to take their money and redistribute it or whatever nonsense Fox News is on about. They don’t want that. They want to take care of it at home with the 3000 other people in town that they know by name. It’s TOUGH to win them over. There needs to be a way to reach them and say, “I’m glad your community is taking care of each other, but this isn’t the case everywhere and we need to take care of those in communities who don’t have this kind of small town safety net.”

Wow well said! I am consistently amazed at how these communities take care of each other. People with nothing still finding ways to give to their neighbors.

Honestly I think that is part of Bernie’s electability in these areas. I think he is pretty good at making the case that it isn’t the “other” that is making your lives hard, it’s the system, and we can fix it.

Thanks for your insight.

[Rebel]

Small town communities take care of each other.....along racial lines. Which leads to a gap in the amount of support different people are receiving. And that is hard to fix because of racism.

I’ve lived in those small town communities and have seen that first hand.

And as far as that being a strength for Bernie because he wants to address those injustices and help....I would argue that most of the Democratic candidates want to fix this. I think this is a strength of the Democratic Party, not specifically Bernie.

[starbuck]

Bernie's insistence he wants to remake the system would be more trustworthy if he weren't so consistently misogynist and racist. Time and again, he makes some jackass statement that gets set aside because he's "really going to shake up the system." Like, ok, if you want to ignore all of his issues, fine. I can't. It's exhausting how often his bullshit is conveniently forgotten by his supporters.

And how will he accomplish all his plans anyways? Work hand in hand with Democrats? Build meaningful coalitions with diverse stakeholders? He's not really even a Dem and I have very little confidence that this intractable old man has the ability to even begin to understand who to bring to the table to ensure these new ideas are well-thought through and will work for everyone.

The most likely scenario is he leads by EO. Which, JFC we really want another president freely wielding that EO? Pushing the powers of the executive branch even further? Maybe he does so in a few constructive ways this time...and how about the next time there's a Trump-like POTUS? How do you plan to push the line back? Because so far, there's been very little success in curtailing the seemingly endless expansion of the powers of the executive branch.

Is he better than Trump? I mean, sure? But damn that's a low bar.

I'm not holding out for the perfect candidate. I'm not doing a purity test. So please don't. But we need to be honest and frank about this man's shit. This isn't "elect whomever and trust them because Democrat." If he gets elected, he'll have to be held to account and I suspect that will be no small task.

Bottom line: is this the man I trust to remake the system? Hell fucking no.

(I have feelings this morning.)

[roloma]

21 days until Iowa becomes inconsequential again.

Just a friendly reminder.

[jkjacq]

Damnit Booker has dropped out

[milano]

Jan 13, 2020 10:02:30 GMT -6 jkjacq said:

Damnit Booker has dropped out

Although I was expecting this, it's still crushing. All "my" candidates are out now.

[Minerva]

Jan 13, 2020 10:02:30 GMT -6 jkjacq said:

Damnit Booker has dropped out

😭

Ugh. I knew it was coming, but it still sucks. I have a HUGE soft spot for Booker.

[blurnette989]

I'm very bummed Booker is out. Sigh.

[catspajamas]

I'm really sad about Booker. I knew it was a long shot but I will really miss his presence in the field. His positivity and message of love was something I was really drawn to, with so much negativity in the world.

[jkjacq]

Jan 13, 2020 10:14:08 GMT -6 blurnette989 said:

I'm very bummed Booker is out. Sigh.

Same, even if he wasnt 'my' guy, he brought A LOT to the debate/table and I really appreciated hearing his take.

[cakewench]

I am sad Booker is dropping out, and still pissed Steyer and Bloomberg are in. And Tulsi, because always.

[Ls2012]

This sucks.

*kicks rocks*

[enchanted]

Jan 13, 2020 10:08:02 GMT -6 milano said:

Jan 13, 2020 10:02:30 GMT -6 jkjacq said:

Damnit Booker has dropped out

Although I was expecting this, it's still crushing. All "my" candidates are out now.

Same. I no longer have joy about this primary.

[roloma]

SON OF A BITCH. I am 0 for 3 on people I was going to caucus for. I expected this but am pretty disappointed, none the less.

That being said, I am no longer undecided for the caucus. It looks like I will just go straight with Warren. There really is no other option for me at this point and I don't have a candidate to try to help get/keep viable. I always planned on ending up with Liz if one of the other candidates wasn't viable but I am just so damn disappointed that we can't just have like one actual, decent person of color as an option (Sorry Yang, I still don't even understand why you are here still). Fucking implicit bias.

[claudia]

I'm sad about Booker. I'm sad at how white the nominees all are (I don't even really count Yang, not because of his race, but because I don't think he's a serious contender at all.)

I'm really, really sad that a quality candidate suspends his campaign and the current president thinks it's appropriate to send a mocking tweet about it. Like, why? Ugh.

[greykitty]

I had a soft spot for Booker, but am not surprised. I am surprised a bit at Sanders' continuing strength so far. I do wonder if Warren is going to be able to make a distinct lane from Sanders - I have the impression she was hoping she'd pick up his voters when he started looking non-viable, but that doesn't seem to be happening at this point, and I'm not thinking she can pick up Biden voters should something happen there - she's tacking toward center but I think it may be too late for a lot of moderate voters. I'm also a little surprised at Streyer, and am starting to wonder if he might have way more staying power than I credited him for.

This certainly has been a primary season for the books.

[cnf]

Well, looks like I'm all aboard the Liz train now.

This primary is such a let down in such a dire time. Sigh.