2020 Candidate Speculation

[roloma]

Mar 26, 2019 13:38:53 GMT -6 CurlieWhirlie said:

Mar 26, 2019 13:33:36 GMT -6 roloma said:

I've been sitting on my hands trying to come up with a response to that.  I did a dog head tilt thing reading that.  I don't believe that any one here is thinking "Oh thank goodness there is a white man to like...I couldn't support a woman."  But I also can't figure out if that was a collectively here or collectively on a wider scope.  But at any rate, Pete has my support right now for who he is as a candidate, not because he is a white man.  I quite like Kamala but she hasn't shown me that "extra" something thus far.  I haven't cancelled anyone because of my support for Pete, and I certainly don't support him because he is a white man.  I don't think it is fair to assume we should overlook him just because there are women and/or POC running.

ETA: I just read the response upthread and realize it was the "wider scope" approach.  Some of what I have here still rings true, however.

I would argue that Kamala hasn't been given the media coverage with which to show you that "extra" something. Which is part of the problem and ends up making Pete look like he is going the extra mile and is this amazing person while meanwhile Kamala is just as amazing but just isn't getting the same coverage, and when she does get coverage, it's half the time about what she's wearing. Know what I mean? So the end result is you, the individual, feel like Pete has shown you more, when in reality it's that you are being shown a narrative by the media coverage and that is determined by implicit biases of the people crafting the narrative.

Does that make sense?

I can look at this from the outside and understand where this could be an issue for the US, at large.  Personally, however, I follow Kamala on all SM, and am deep into "liberal" media so I see/read/hear a lot about her.  And yet, I still haven't found what I was/am looking for in her.  To me, I saw Kamala actually get a fair amount of coverage, perhaps because she was in the race earlier.  I only see Pete getting more attention as of recently but even then, he still isn't getting as much as she is.  However, I would say there is an immense bias towards Beto, Bernie, and even "am I or am I not" Biden.  So, I totally see where you are coming from and can agree but I don't think it necessarily applies back to Pete quite as much.

[richard]

Mar 26, 2019 6:40:42 GMT -6 cakewench said:

Mar 26, 2019 3:45:59 GMT -6 dc2london said:

Maybe Pete won't win this time around, but the next primary, he may well start as the frontrunner.

I mean I seriously doubt Biden or Bernie will run in 2028

Bernie's animated corpse could run in 50 years and his supporters will still make him a frontrunner.

Zombernie Sanders for President!

THINK OF THE WEEKEND AT BERNIE'S JOKES.

Lol. I was 5 seconds away from a Weekend at Bernie's joke but I kept reading, knowing someone else would get there first.

[richard]

Mar 26, 2019 10:39:58 GMT -6 CurlieWhirlie said:

I really like Mayor Pete but it bums me out that we're collectively so much more interested in literally any white man than the many women running.

I'm still team Kamala.

Pete hasn't surpassed Kamala for me yet as her experience is more what I'm looking for.

They're the two I'm giving money to regularly now. 

[greykitty]

Kamala eats crackers for me for some reason, and I guess I keep reading what I see as shiny nifty big policy proposals from her without good logistical back up on how things get paid for.

First it was health insurance, and now raising teacher salaries. That's got a lot of head tilting in my area, where our teachers are pretty well paid, we no longer benefit from the SALT deduction, and where, right or wrong, most education financial support comes from real estate taxes. The bulk of my real state taxes goes to support schools. This dollar matching thing doesn't make sense to me. And requires a hell of a lot of state buy in to succeed. I get less impressed with every policy statement she makes. But, I'll give her that she's targeting some good voter blocs with this last proposal.

ETA - if someone could point me to a more detail analysis of funding for the education proposal, I'd appreciate it - as I said, she doesn't appeal to me for some reason, and I'm trying to read more objective material about her proposals to see if I can overcome that bias.  The summaries I see mention estate tax but in very general terms.  

[richard]

Mar 26, 2019 11:22:43 GMT -6 misspatty said:

Mar 26, 2019 11:12:13 GMT -6 jaygee said:

I don’t know about Amy, but Senator Harris is out there doing all the things. She’s not getting half the press coverage Beto, Biden, Pete are getting. It’s discouraging.

... like pledging not to go to the AIPAC conference and then having a meeting with them in her office about "Israel's right to defend itself"?


I like Kamala, but her tweet really concerns me. A lot. I value your opinion so I'm genuinely curious what you think about it.

I think as a Senator, if there's a delegation from your state in town, you're likely are going to meet with them. 

I'm not sure what your interpretation of "right to defend itself" is? But Obama said that about Israel repeatedly, so to me that's not a radical thing to say in terms of being out of line with the balance a lot of Democrats have been trying to strike for many years. (And if you're saying that balance isn't where you want it to be - fair enough.) But I don't think Kamala's outside of where the party is at in general here.

At least she didn't go to AIPAC and drag Omar like Schumer did.

[jaygee]

Mar 26, 2019 17:14:37 GMT -6 greykitty said:

Kamala eats crackers for me for some reason, and I guess I keep reading what I see as shiny nifty big policy proposals from her without good logistical back up on how things get paid for.

First it was health insurance, and now raising teacher salaries. That's got a lot of head tilting in my area, where our teachers are pretty well paid, we no longer benefit from the SALT deduction, and where, right or wrong, most education financial support comes from real estate taxes. The bulk of my real state taxes goes to support schools. This dollar matching thing doesn't make sense to me. And requires a hell of a lot of state buy in to succeed. I get less impressed with every policy statement she makes. But, I'll give her that she's targeting some good voter blocs with this last proposal.

ETA - if someone could point me to a more detail analysis of funding for the education proposal, I'd appreciate it - as I said, she doesn't appeal to me for some reason, and I'm trying to read more objective material about her proposals to see if I can overcome that bias.  The summaries I see mention estate tax but in very general terms.  

She wrote an op ed on her proposal today in the WaPo. I don’t think this is as specific as you are looking for, but it’s straight from her if that counts for anything.

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kamala-harris-our-teacher-pay-gap-is-a-national-failure-heres-how-we-can-fix-it/2019/03/25/8fdd5eaa-4f36-11e9-8d28-f5149e5a2fda_story.html?utm_term=.6ab505726cb2

To me it sounds like it works a lot like Medicaid works with matching funds. So, yes the state has to pony up funds, but they get it matched from the feds for every dollar they put in. It’s a pretty effective way to set national policy and incentivize states to play. I don’t know if there will be an opt out as there unfortunately is with medicaid expansion right now, but if a state where to opt out it is pretty politically unpopular with constituents if they realize the state is forgoing federal funds.

This article says estate tax on top 1% and “other loopholes” will fund it. I have no doubt there is enough money there. It’s just a matter of how many proposals they have to spend that money (seems like every one!) and of those tax changes can pass.

[mothafuckinteatime]

I’m pretty evenly Pete & Kamala right now, but I do think the dismissal of him as “another white man” is odd considering he is also a part of a marginalized community.

Not saying he doesn’t also have significant white privilege at play, but there is a vast majority of homophobic voters in this country. He’s not just more of the same.

[greykitty]

jaygee, thanks. Unfortunately, where does that state money come from to start out with? Raising taxes is never an easy route, and in states where taxes are already high what happens? The SALT deduction restored? More exemptions for homeowners under certain earning levels? Do local schools get the benefit of taxes paid, or are they shifted to other areas/states? But I'll read your link, and thank you for such a quick response. I do have her book on hold at the library which I hope counteracts my internet impressions.

To be clear, I think supporting education versus local real estate taxes needs to be modified/replaced. It creates inequity in funding and, very often, educational outcomes which is, duh, I know. Over the years I've noted referendums to increase school funding don't always pass, and where they pass, the margins are getting tighter and tighter. But it's the system we have now - and local control of schools is so often a deeply emotional hill to die on for many voters, and not only taxpayers with kids currently in school.

Why does everything have to be so complicated?

[jaygee]

Mar 26, 2019 17:46:01 GMT -6 greykitty said:

jaygee, thanks. Unfortunately, where does that state money come from to start out with? Raising taxes is never an easy route, and in states where taxes are already high what happens? The SALT deduction restored? More exemptions for homeowners under certain earning levels? Do local schools get the benefit of taxes paid, or are they shifted to other areas/states? But I'll read your link, and thank you for such a quick response. I do have her book on hold at the library which I hope counteracts my internet impressions.

To be clear, I think supporting education versus local real estate taxes needs to be modified/replaced. It creates inequity in funding and, very often, educational outcomes which is, duh, I know. Over the years I've noted referendums to increase school funding don't always pass, and where they pass, the margins are getting tighter and tighter. But it's the system we have now - and local control of schools is so often a deeply emotional hill to die on for many voters, and not only taxpayers with kids currently in school.

Why does everything have to be so complicated?

If I’m understanding her proposal correctly it is only meant to address the teacher pay gap. So it doesn’t change anything else with education funding (although, my gosh, does that need to happen).

Yes, states would have to make an investment. That is difficult. But, I think most constituents on both sides of the aisle feel we need to spend more on education so it’s maybe not as difficult as some other proposals.

You should watch Senator Harris’ speech from Oakland. It’s her in her element and lays out her vision.

At the end of the day, she might not be your fav though and that’s ok. Luckily we have a lot of great candidates and I know we will all get behind whoever gets the nom.

[richard]

Mar 26, 2019 17:14:37 GMT -6 greykitty said:

Kamala eats crackers for me for some reason, and I guess I keep reading what I see as shiny nifty big policy proposals from her without good logistical back up on how things get paid for.

First it was health insurance, and now raising teacher salaries. That's got a lot of head tilting in my area, where our teachers are pretty well paid, we no longer benefit from the SALT deduction, and where, right or wrong, most education financial support comes from real estate taxes. The bulk of my real state taxes goes to support schools. This dollar matching thing doesn't make sense to me. And requires a hell of a lot of state buy in to succeed. I get less impressed with every policy statement she makes. But, I'll give her that she's targeting some good voter blocs with this last proposal.

ETA - if someone could point me to a more detail analysis of funding for the education proposal, I'd appreciate it - as I said, she doesn't appeal to me for some reason, and I'm trying to read more objective material about her proposals to see if I can overcome that bias.  The summaries I see mention estate tax but in very general terms.  

This is a good explainer: www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/26/18280734/kamala-harris-2020-election-policies-teachers-salaries

I think this proposal is *very* smart politically. Very.

As for how to pay for it, yes, it would be reinstating some of the estate tax that the GOP tax cut ended, making it more progressive and cutting some loopholes. I don't know that it's entirely fair to say it doesn't have good back up for how things get paid for in Warren's proposal for more affordable housing and Bernie has a plan out there to increase the estate tax too.

Re: the state funding, I agree that the Republican states who have been cutting teacher pay already are probably going to be holdouts just like with Medicaid expansion....but there are red states who have done Medicaid expansion and there are more being pursued at the ballot box with referendums. Healthcare and education are things that I feel like have the most potential to cut across the ideological spectrum in terms of popular support.

And, finally, when you say your area teachers are already well-paid, I get head tilty myself because often people don't look at cost of living adjustments when they're comparing salaries between states. And they tend to see what the average/high end is and not look at starting salaries. www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/03/16/592221378/the-fight-over-teacher-salaries-a-look-at-the-numbers

[sterling]

Mar 26, 2019 8:54:00 GMT -6 misspatty said:

Pete was out with a street crew today filling cracks and explaining why it's important in order to prolong the life of South Bend's streets.

I’ve mapped those street cracks. Is that weird? I bet that’s weird.

[greykitty]

jaygee, thank you again. I have to say right now I don't think this proposal will fly as presented, and could easily be picked apart on the campaign trail, but it's good to have such concepts included in a national conversation.

I was reading about reports on President Obama's comments to congressional freshmen the other day...the comment about having plans for implementation, as well as bold ideas, really stuck with me. We're weak here, I think.

[sterling]

Mar 26, 2019 10:39:58 GMT -6 CurlieWhirlie said:

I really like Mayor Pete but it bums me out that we're collectively so much more interested in literally any white man than the many women running.

I'm still team Kamala.

I feel a way about this.

[richard]

Mar 26, 2019 17:46:01 GMT -6 greykitty said:

jaygee , thanks. Unfortunately, where does that state money come from to start out with? Raising taxes is never an easy route, and in states where taxes are already high what happens? The SALT deduction restored? More exemptions for homeowners under certain earning levels? Do local schools get the benefit of taxes paid, or are they shifted to other areas/states? But I'll read your link, and thank you for such a quick response. I do have her book on hold at the library which I hope counteracts my internet impressions.

To be clear, I think supporting education versus local real estate taxes needs to be modified/replaced. It creates inequity in funding and, very often, educational outcomes which is, duh, I know. Over the years I've noted referendums to increase school funding don't always pass, and where they pass, the margins are getting tighter and tighter. But it's the system we have now - and local control of schools is so often a deeply emotional hill to die on for many voters, and not only taxpayers with kids currently in school.

Why does everything have to be so complicated?

I think the state money question is a good one - but if a state isn't going to spend $1 to get $3 from the feds to increase a teacher's salary, they're never going to find $4 to do it on their own. So I think it's an incentive to states as more and more teachers are reaching a breaking point like in WV.

I agree with you on the underlying question of how to fund schools but that's a state/local issue and not something that's within a presidential candidate's purview.

And I think if Dems have the hypothetical votes to repeal the changes made to the estate tax in the first place, they're going to have the votes to restore SALT deductions too.

[misspatty]

Mar 26, 2019 17:25:20 GMT -6 richard said:

Mar 26, 2019 11:22:43 GMT -6 misspatty said:

... like pledging not to go to the AIPAC conference and then having a meeting with them in her office about "Israel's right to defend itself"?


I like Kamala, but her tweet really concerns me. A lot. I value your opinion so I'm genuinely curious what you think about it.

I think as a Senator, if there's a delegation from your state in town, you're likely are going to meet with them. 

I'm not sure what your interpretation of "right to defend itself" is? But Obama said that about Israel repeatedly, so to me that's not a radical thing to say in terms of being out of line with the balance a lot of Democrats have been trying to strike for many years. (And if you're saying that balance isn't where you want it to be - fair enough.) But I don't think Kamala's outside of where the party is at in general here.

At least she didn't go to AIPAC and drag Omar like Schumer did.

I didn’t agree with Obama on Israel either. It felt like she tried to play both sides by pledging not to go but then acquiescing to the exact same (problematic) position we’ve taken for years.

[sterling]

Mar 26, 2019 18:02:41 GMT -6 sterling said:

Mar 26, 2019 10:39:58 GMT -6 CurlieWhirlie said:

I really like Mayor Pete but it bums me out that we're collectively so much more interested in literally any white man than the many women running.

I'm still team Kamala.

I feel a way about this.

I’m reading and trying to feel less of a way.

[misspatty]

Mar 26, 2019 18:00:14 GMT -6 sterling said:

Mar 26, 2019 8:54:00 GMT -6 misspatty said:

Pete was out with a street crew today filling cracks and explaining why it's important in order to prolong the life of South Bend's streets.

I’ve mapped those street cracks. Is that weird? I bet that’s weird.

You’re the weirdest and I love you.

[richard]

Mar 26, 2019 18:05:45 GMT -6 misspatty said:

Mar 26, 2019 17:25:20 GMT -6 richard said:

I think as a Senator, if there's a delegation from your state in town, you're likely are going to meet with them. 

I'm not sure what your interpretation of "right to defend itself" is? But Obama said that about Israel repeatedly, so to me that's not a radical thing to say in terms of being out of line with the balance a lot of Democrats have been trying to strike for many years. (And if you're saying that balance isn't where you want it to be - fair enough.) But I don't think Kamala's outside of where the party is at in general here.

At least she didn't go to AIPAC and drag Omar like Schumer did.

I didn’t agree with Obama on Israel either. It felt like she tried to play both sides by pledging not to go but then acquiescing to the exact same (problematic) position we’ve taken for years.

Fair enough. It's just that Kamala's not alone in this.

[misspatty]

But what is Kamala’s position on Chick-fil-a? (It’s a joke guys, sometimes I make jokes.)

[richard]

And apparently Warren sent her staff.

[misspatty]

Mar 26, 2019 18:12:42 GMT -6 richard said:

Mar 26, 2019 18:05:45 GMT -6 misspatty said:

I didn’t agree with Obama on Israel either. It felt like she tried to play both sides by pledging not to go but then acquiescing to the exact same (problematic) position we’ve taken for years.

Fair enough. It's just that Kamala's not alone in this.

It’s not that she met with them that bothers me, it’s the full endorsement of their agenda in her tweet: “the need for a strong U.S.-Israel alliance, the right of Israel to defend itself, and my commitment to combat anti-Semitism in our country and around the world.”

Amy using similar language doesn’t thrill me at all. The others just took meetings, which isn’t the same as endorsing their message, to me. I have some serious issues with our blind alliance with Israel.

[flippinchica]

Mar 26, 2019 18:14:20 GMT -6 misspatty said:

But what is Kamala’s position on Chick-fil-a? (It’s a joke guys, sometimes I make jokes.)

Lol. San Antonio decided not to allow Chick fil-A at the airport because of their anti LGBT stance.

[richard]

Mar 26, 2019 18:19:29 GMT -6 misspatty said:

Mar 26, 2019 18:12:42 GMT -6 richard said:

Fair enough. It's just that Kamala's not alone in this.

The others just took meetings, which isn’t the same as endorsing their message, to me. 

The day isn't done yet Miss Patty! Lol.

[cnf]

Mar 26, 2019 17:56:55 GMT -6 richard said:

Mar 26, 2019 17:14:37 GMT -6 greykitty said:

Kamala eats crackers for me for some reason, and I guess I keep reading what I see as shiny nifty big policy proposals from her without good logistical back up on how things get paid for.

First it was health insurance, and now raising teacher salaries. That's got a lot of head tilting in my area, where our teachers are pretty well paid, we no longer benefit from the SALT deduction, and where, right or wrong, most education financial support comes from real estate taxes. The bulk of my real state taxes goes to support schools. This dollar matching thing doesn't make sense to me. And requires a hell of a lot of state buy in to succeed. I get less impressed with every policy statement she makes. But, I'll give her that she's targeting some good voter blocs with this last proposal.

ETA - if someone could point me to a more detail analysis of funding for the education proposal, I'd appreciate it - as I said, she doesn't appeal to me for some reason, and I'm trying to read more objective material about her proposals to see if I can overcome that bias.  The summaries I see mention estate tax but in very general terms.  

This is a good explainer: www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/3/26/18280734/kamala-harris-2020-election-policies-teachers-salaries

I think this proposal is *very* smart politically. Very.

As for how to pay for it, yes, it would be reinstating some of the estate tax that the GOP tax cut ended, making it more progressive and cutting some loopholes. I don't know that it's entirely fair to say it doesn't have good back up for how things get paid for in Warren's proposal for more affordable housing and Bernie has a plan out there to increase the estate tax too.

Re: the state funding, I agree that the Republican states who have been cutting teacher pay already are probably going to be holdouts just like with Medicaid expansion....but there are red states who have done Medicaid expansion and there are more being pursued at the ballot box with referendums. Healthcare and education are things that I feel like have the most potential to cut across the ideological spectrum in terms of popular support.

And, finally, when you say your area teachers are already well-paid, I get head tilty myself because often people don't look at cost of living adjustments when they're comparing salaries between states. And they tend to see what the average/high end is and not look at starting salaries. www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/03/16/592221378/the-fight-over-teacher-salaries-a-look-at-the-numbers

Thank you for this. I find it fascinating and also sad. The pay gap for teachers is awful and the shit teachers deal with is ridiculous. I generally don't complain because I teach in NY, I'm well paid for sure, but I also got called a bitch straight to my face today for telling a kid to put his phone away. Some days I feel like no money will cover for some that kind of nonsense.

I'd love to see teachers nation wide get the pay they deserve. It blows my mind that some states pay so little.

I'm also super behind on literally every aspect of my job right now and need to decide when to pull a super long day and stay some extra hours, beyond the ones outside my contract that I already log daily. Whomp whomp.

[greykitty]

richard, I'm in a pretty blue state (currently governor/senate/my own congressional rep) and even in my relatively HCOL, generally college educated area (not bragging or whatever, it's just where I'm getting my impressions of local voter sentiment), school referendums are becoming real nail biters, where not just flat out defeated. I can't even imagine the sentiment in real red states.

My county's median property tax is around $5500. From what I find on the web, my grammar school district's average teacher salary is currently $55,858 before benefits - while that's not a giant income in my area, it's still higher than state average income - and we have a lot of long-term teachers and the ending salaries are closer to $90,000. That's way more than most people in my district have as income. And you're right. that ending comp and pension is exactly what voters see when asked to vote for higher taxes. That's why I'm not seeing this proposal as an easy to pass, especially when the details aren't there yet.

Aside - over the years, I've become much more in favor of moving newer educational employees to defined contribution pension plans....the old traditional defined benefit pension is just not sustainable any more, and all those lightly funded pension plans are really putting a drain on so many governmental entities.

Again, bold proposals are needed to start conversations, but IMO I hope we can back those ideas up with narratives that appeal to voters of all ages.

[richard]

I enjoy the policy/position conversations because it gives me something to dig into and not feel like I'm wandering amongst the candidates without a clue as to what I think.

[richard]

I need to argue something to know where I stand on. Ask my husband.

[misspatty]

Mar 26, 2019 18:35:09 GMT -6 richard said:

I enjoy the policy/position conversations because it gives me something to dig into and not feel like I'm wandering amongst the candidates without a clue as to what I think.

I’m really just impressed that you’re able to be so nuanced about policy after bedtime. My brain is a pile of useless mush after I get my kid to sleep.

[greykitty]

Mar 26, 2019 18:37:51 GMT -6 richard said:

I need to argue something to know where I stand on. Ask my husband.

Oh, me too - how did I buy a car?  A friend praised one model and somehow, in debating that with her, I realized what car I actually wanted.  Surprise, not that one.  

And I swear I really identified with the West Wing episode where Leo's daughter was so upset with Sam regarding his admittedly good arguments for school choice, not realizing he was tasked with opposition prep.  I find the best way to defend something I want is to find all the holes first, and see where those can be plugged.  Maybe that's what's making me crazy re Harris - I like the ideas, see the holes, and can't figure out how to plug them sufficiently and feel like the candidate/party isn't helping me out there! :-)

[richard]

Mar 26, 2019 18:46:02 GMT -6 misspatty said:

Mar 26, 2019 18:35:09 GMT -6 richard said:

I enjoy the policy/position conversations because it gives me something to dig into and not feel like I'm wandering amongst the candidates without a clue as to what I think.

I’m really just impressed that you’re able to be so nuanced about policy after bedtime. My brain is a pile of useless mush after I get my kid to sleep.

Mine are still watching Into the Spider-verse for the 5th time. 

PARENT OF THE YEAR.