mapleme
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Post by mapleme on Sept 5, 2024 10:32:33 GMT -6
I'm all for that Allan Lichtman prediction. His model works for presidential races going back to the 1800s. The only one that he got wrong was because of the electoral college. Gore won the popular vote. After that he changed the model to account for the electoral college and he correctly guessed that Trump would win 2016 when no one else did. The thing that I find crazy is that, according to his model, the only thing that tipped the scales to Biden instead of Trump in 2020 was all of the unrest and protests in the summer of 2020. If that wasn't happening - even with the pandemic - Trump would have won again. What's also crazy is that only two of the keys in his model are about the people who are running themselves. Which implies that if the republicans keep putting Trump up that he might actually win again. Or a surrogate, since Trump will eventually die of old age.
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Post by taconight on Sept 5, 2024 10:39:35 GMT -6
I'm all for that Allan Lichtman prediction. His model works for presidential races going back to the 1800s. The only one that he got wrong was because of the electoral college. Gore won the popular vote. After that he changed the model to account for the electoral college and he correctly guessed that Trump would win 2016 when no one else did. The thing that I find crazy is that, according to his model, the only thing that tipped the scales to Biden instead of Trump in 2020 was all of the unrest and protests in the summer of 2020. If that wasn't happening - even with the pandemic - Trump would have won again. What's also crazy is that only two of the keys in his model are about the people who are running themselves. Which implies that if the republicans keep putting Trump up that he might actually win again. Or a surrogate, since Trump will eventually die of old age. Isn’t it believed that if SCOTUS hadn’t stepped in and stopped the Florida recounts, that Gore would have won? So he may have actually been right about that one, too. |
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Post by downwarddog on Sept 5, 2024 10:47:06 GMT -6
I'm all for that Allan Lichtman prediction. His model works for presidential races going back to the 1800s. The only one that he got wrong was because of the electoral college. Gore won the popular vote. After that he changed the model to account for the electoral college and he correctly guessed that Trump would win 2016 when no one else did. The thing that I find crazy is that, according to his model, the only thing that tipped the scales to Biden instead of Trump in 2020 was all of the unrest and protests in the summer of 2020. If that wasn't happening - even with the pandemic - Trump would have won again. What's also crazy is that only two of the keys in his model are about the people who are running themselves. Which implies that if the republicans keep putting Trump up that he might actually win again. Or a surrogate, since Trump will eventually die of old age. Isn’t it believed that if SCOTUS hadn’t stepped in and stopped the Florida recounts, that Gore would have won? So he may have actually been right about that one, too. That's exactly what I thought when I read that. He was right, but there were shenanigans afoot. |
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mapleme
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Post by mapleme on Sept 5, 2024 10:49:19 GMT -6
I know that the world isn't that simple, but I hope that this is the beginning of the end for the Republicans. I want Harris to so thoroughly trounce Trump that the Rs start floundering. They can't keep rallying behind Trump because he can't win, but he won't let go of his stranglehold on the party. So they are stuck in an unwinnable position. They could spin for years of dysfunction or the party could crumble and a new party could move forward to major party status. Other major parties have dissolved, like the Whigs.
I just can't imagine how much this must suck for the old-school Republicans who have conservative values but also believe in democracy. I used to wonder what would make me abandon the Democratic party. How bad would the candidate have to be before I would hold my nose to vote for someone else. When Trump said his, "If you vote for me in November you'll never have to vote again" comment and then doubled down on it, I realized that that was it. I don't care how progressive and aligned with all of my preferences a candidate was. Once they say that they're going to kill democracy, I'm out.
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Post by miawallace on Sept 5, 2024 10:54:07 GMT -6
I never know what to do with polls.
Has anyone here ever gotten a chance to do a poll?
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Post by miawallace on Sept 5, 2024 11:08:10 GMT -6
miawallace, DH received a phone call poll last election. Which required him to answer his phone despite an unknown number. So that should tell you how reliable those are... I don't know if there is more texting now? I think trends are more reliable than actual numbers. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what the polls say- you have to get out and vote like your candidate is losing and you are the only one that can save them. I think a big mistake from 2016 is being smug from those polls. I just see them now and have no idea if they have adapted to the times or if they are still sending owls. |
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Eagles
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Post by Eagles on Sept 5, 2024 11:30:13 GMT -6
I never know what to do with polls. Has anyone here ever gotten a chance to do a poll? I've gotten some random poll texts this cycle. I delete and block because 1) stop bothering me and 2) polls don't mean shit. The two things I learned from my Obama vol friends were that polls don't mean shit and lawn signs don't win elections (but I truly love all the lawn sign enthusiasm here, sincerely!). |
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dc2london
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Post by dc2london on Sept 5, 2024 11:31:52 GMT -6
I never know what to do with polls. Has anyone here ever gotten a chance to do a poll? I was polled in 2008 ETA via landline. We haven't had a landline since 2009 or 2010. |
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Eagles
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Post by Eagles on Sept 5, 2024 11:32:37 GMT -6
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dc2london
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Post by dc2london on Sept 5, 2024 11:34:33 GMT -6
Re: 45, if MVP beats him (MANIFESTING VICTORY), how much you want to bet he runs again in 2028? He'll be, what, 83? You know he will.
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clucky
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Post by clucky on Sept 5, 2024 11:35:03 GMT -6
miawallace I had a phone survey just before the primaries. The number called me 3 times over a few days before I answered, and seeing it was a DC number.
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clucky
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Post by clucky on Sept 5, 2024 11:36:37 GMT -6
Re: 45, if MVP beats him (MANIFESTING VICTORY), how much you want to bet he runs again in 2028? He'll be, what, 83? You know he will. Manifesting. Especially because I cannot imagine the absolute grossest top 3. Cannot happen. F them. |
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Post by miawallace on Sept 5, 2024 11:37:47 GMT -6
Re: 45, if MVP beats him (MANIFESTING VICTORY), how much you want to bet he runs again in 2028? He'll be, what, 83? You know he will. He’s going to run again or one of his kids. My bet is on Ivana. |
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sweptaway
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Post by sweptaway on Sept 5, 2024 11:42:24 GMT -6
Isn’t it believed that if SCOTUS hadn’t stepped in and stopped the Florida recounts, that Gore would have won? So he may have actually been right about that one, too. That's exactly what I thought when I read that. He was right, but there were shenanigans afoot. And we don't think there will be shenanigans again? I am a forever pessimist when it comes to this. I just can't get my hopes up. I also am afraid that publicizing stuff like this, positive polls, etc, will lull people back into a false sense of security/ |
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Post by angelashly on Sept 5, 2024 11:43:15 GMT -6
I never know what to do with polls. Has anyone here ever gotten a chance to do a poll? Nope |
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Post by downwarddog on Sept 5, 2024 11:45:22 GMT -6
That's exactly what I thought when I read that. He was right, but there were shenanigans afoot. And we don't think there will be shenanigans again? I am a forever pessimist when it comes to this. I just can't get my hopes up. I also am afraid that publicizing stuff like this, positive polls, etc, will lull people back into a false sense of security/ Oh, I think there will be, absolutely. But I also think because it is so expected, it's going to be harder to get away with. Hey, speaking of manifesting, maybe he won't be around anymore in 2028. |
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Post by miawallace on Sept 5, 2024 11:47:09 GMT -6
And we don't think there will be shenanigans again? I am a forever pessimist when it comes to this. I just can't get my hopes up. I also am afraid that publicizing stuff like this, positive polls, etc, will lull people back into a false sense of security/ Oh, I think there will be, absolutely. But I also think because it is so expected, it's going to be harder to get away with. Hey, speaking of manifesting, maybe he won't be around anymore in 2028. 🤞🏻 |
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leahcar
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Post by leahcar on Sept 5, 2024 11:57:25 GMT -6
miawallace, I have gotten a few polls this season. All have come via text because I certainly don't answer my phone.  Perhaps because I'm in Texas- they all seem a little right-skewed. I hope that means the R party is scared on a bigger scale than they are letting on.
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Post by theoriginalbean on Sept 5, 2024 12:18:30 GMT -6
Hi! Lurker who also spent many years working as a sociologist in a policy research shop, specializing in political polling for the state of Ohio back when it was a true bellwether/tossup state. Polls have changed a lot over the last few cycles but I'd be happy to answer any questions about research methodology if there's anything specific you want to know when it comes to sampling, weighting, interpreting, etc.
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sewf
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Post by sewf on Sept 5, 2024 12:23:34 GMT -6
I have a coworker who says she “doesn’t understand or follow politics “ so she’s not voting. How do I get her to vote for Harris if all the other people around her are either apathetic also or voting for Drump?
(I am relatively new to this job, and it’s a Lutheran preschool, so I have to be strategic and careful. She’s 25, so old enough to get interested.)
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elle
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Post by elle on Sept 5, 2024 12:23:50 GMT -6
Re: 45, if MVP beats him (MANIFESTING VICTORY), how much you want to bet he runs again in 2028? He'll be, what, 83? You know he will. He'll run until he's dead. Gotta keep that grift going and stay outta prison. |
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Post by miawallace on Sept 5, 2024 12:36:24 GMT -6
I have a coworker who says she “doesn’t understand or follow politics “ so she’s not voting. How do I get her to vote for Harris if all the other people around her are either apathetic also or voting for Drump? (I am relatively new to this job, and it’s a Lutheran preschool, so I have to be strategic and careful. She’s 25, so old enough to get interested.) The minimum is getting them to register to vote. If y’all live in a state that allows mail-in ballot, I find those have more incentive to get people to vote than showing up. Once they are register they get election sample ballots and they can take it from there. But at least they are in the system. I’ve shown up to every election since I’ve been eligible and I’m so so thankful for mail in ballots. I also think seeing people vote in my own family has been a way I’ve broken generational cycles. I always saw my dad vote and to me it was like normal shit everyone does. I don’t think everyone has that. So if we can at least get them to be registered voters, that’s a big thing. |
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sewf
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Post by sewf on Sept 5, 2024 12:39:13 GMT -6
I have a coworker who says she “doesn’t understand or follow politics “ so she’s not voting. How do I get her to vote for Harris if all the other people around her are either apathetic also or voting for Drump? (I am relatively new to this job, and it’s a Lutheran preschool, so I have to be strategic and careful. She’s 25, so old enough to get interested.) The minimum is getting them to register to vote. If y’all live in a state that allows mail-in ballot, I find those have more incentive to get people to vote than showing up. Once they are register they get election sample ballots and they can take it from there. But at least they are in the system. I’ve shown up to every election since I’ve been eligible and I’m so so thankful for mail in ballots. I also think seeing people vote in my own family has been a way I’ve broken generational cycles. I always saw my dad vote and to me it was like normal shit everyone does. I don’t think everyone has that. So if we can at least get them to be registered voters, that’s a big thing. We’re in Missouri, so in actuality, until they abolish the electoral college, it likely wouldn’t matter if she votes or not. But I want to do SOMETHING to help in my red state. ETA: Also, she friended me on FB, and I warned her that it’s all kids and liberal stuff there, and she still wanted to friend me, so I’m going to flood my feed with as much liberal Harris stuff as I can 😂 |
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Post by miawallace on Sept 5, 2024 12:42:15 GMT -6
The minimum is getting them to register to vote. If y’all live in a state that allows mail-in ballot, I find those have more incentive to get people to vote than showing up. Once they are register they get election sample ballots and they can take it from there. But at least they are in the system. I’ve shown up to every election since I’ve been eligible and I’m so so thankful for mail in ballots. I also think seeing people vote in my own family has been a way I’ve broken generational cycles. I always saw my dad vote and to me it was like normal shit everyone does. I don’t think everyone has that. So if we can at least get them to be registered voters, that’s a big thing. We’re in Missouri, so in actuality, until they abolish the electoral college, it likely wouldn’t matter if she votes or not. But I want to do SOMETHING to help in my red state. This board has shown me red states are not what they seem. I’d start with sending her a link to register to vote if she isn’t. A lot of people aren’t fully vested like others and it is what it is. But we won’t know if a red state can turn red if people just stop growing the voter population. |
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athn64
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Post by athn64 on Sept 5, 2024 12:43:19 GMT -6
Nota🎃, that breaks my heart for your kiddo. Sorry they feel they had to do that to protect themself.
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sewf
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Post by sewf on Sept 5, 2024 12:43:52 GMT -6
We’re in Missouri, so in actuality, until they abolish the electoral college, it likely wouldn’t matter if she votes or not. But I want to do SOMETHING to help in my red state. This board has shown me red states are not what they seem. I’d start with sending her a link to register to vote if she isn’t. A lot of people aren’t fully vested like others and it is what it is. But we won’t know if a red state can turn red if people just stop growing the voter population. I do know that she is registered because she said she did because of that stupid Chiefs stadium threat the Hunts tried to pull, so I guess that’s half the battle done! |
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Post by thechickencoop on Sept 5, 2024 12:48:45 GMT -6
My oldest has removed all their pins, lapels, and keychains from their bookbag. They had things like pride flags, pan flag, they/them, meme pins, etc. Now we have lots of anxiety to start with. But they said all the flare makes them a target. They are really worried that if Dump wins there will be something like concentration camps rounding up immigrants, BIPOC, and LGBTQIA+ so thats what teens (HS seniors) are talking about here. 💔 I'm so sorry. It's so easy to go down that rabbit hole of what if what if what if. 💜 I make a point to wear my pride bracelets or a t-shirt almost all the time especially when I'm going to school or community events so that my children and any surrounding kids can hopefully see a safe person in the midst. We have so much hate and bigotry in the fucking County. The goddamn school board banned pride flags in classrooms a couple years ago because like some random teacher was offended that they were offered a flag to display. |
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Post by miawallace on Sept 5, 2024 12:50:14 GMT -6
This board has shown me red states are not what they seem. I’d start with sending her a link to register to vote if she isn’t. A lot of people aren’t fully vested like others and it is what it is. But we won’t know if a red state can turn red if people just stop growing the voter population. I do know that she is registered because she said she did because of that stupid Chiefs stadium threat the Hunts tried to pull, so I guess that’s half the battle done! Hopefully seeing you get super motivated to vote, even if it’s in a Red State will motivate her. Sometimes it’s all it takes. This is something yt women need to be loud in. We can’t be down low about this. We are loud and proud and no red state is going to make us whisper our vote. |
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clucky
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Post by clucky on Sept 5, 2024 12:52:26 GMT -6
apnews.com/article/trump-simes-russia-election-fbi-f0b0fe681c821f735c4e951736f041c81st 2 paragraphs WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. government has charged a Russian-born U.S. citizen and former adviser to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign with working for a sanctioned Russian state television network and laundering the proceeds. Indictments announced Thursday by the Department of Justice allege that Dimitri Simes and his wife received over $1 million dollars and a personal car and driver in exchange for work they did for Russia’s Channel One since June 2022. The network was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2022 over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Post by downwarddog on Sept 5, 2024 12:53:53 GMT -6
My oldest has removed all their pins, lapels, and keychains from their bookbag. They had things like pride flags, pan flag, they/them, meme pins, etc. Now we have lots of anxiety to start with. But they said all the flare makes them a target. They are really worried that if Dump wins there will be something like concentration camps rounding up immigrants, BIPOC, and LGBTQIA+ so thats what teens (HS seniors) are talking about here. 💔 My 15 year old is very worried he is going to be put into a concentration camp if that asshole wins again. It breaks my heart. I keep a rainbow "safe space" sticker on my office door so all students hopefully feel comfortable being themselves with me (I'm the nurse). |
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