2020 Candidate Speculation

[enchanted]

I received a text for Bernie. Only candidate I've heard from that I didn't donate to.

[enchanted]

I love Conan O'Brien. He hasn't been ruined by the Blinds, right?

[greykitty]

CNN reporting that Booker's contributions have surged this last week, but he may not have the polling he needed to qualify for the next debate.

www.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/cory-booker-fundraising-surge/index.html

[Uncaripswife]

Damnit I wish a pollster would ask me about Booker or Castro.

[dc2london]

Dec 7, 2019 16:57:02 GMT -6 Uncaripswife said:

Damnit I wish a pollster would ask me about Booker or Castro.

That "name ID" problem, again, rears its ugly head.

There are huge swaths of the electorate who genuinely have no idea who anyone other than Biden and Sanders are.

(That's not a criticism of those people, it's just an observation)

[Minerva]

Dec 7, 2019 15:54:37 GMT -6 enchanted said:

I love Conan O'Brien. He hasn't been ruined by the Blinds, right?

Have you seen his E.B. White story?

[enchanted]

Dec 7, 2019 17:20:03 GMT -6 Minerva said:

Dec 7, 2019 15:54:37 GMT -6 enchanted said:

I love Conan O'Brien. He hasn't been ruined by the Blinds, right?

Have you seen his E.B. White story?

♥️♥️♥️

I hadn't. Thanks so much for sharing.

[cnf]

Dec 7, 2019 16:57:02 GMT -6 Uncaripswife said:

Damnit I wish a pollster would ask me about Booker or Castro.

Seriously. How do I get on polling lists? I've never been polled. It feels unfair to say that X number of people support Y when the amount of people, and groups of people polled, are so limited

[lemondrop]

Dec 7, 2019 15:00:05 GMT -6 dc2london said:

Dec 7, 2019 14:34:43 GMT -6 athn64 said:

lemondrop, isn't she an American though? I mean, her father was a US vet with ties to the Revolutionary War. So she's got citizenship from birth, and isn't naturalized.

I believe she was born in Thailand while her father was part of the foreign service so she would still be eligible to be VP

From my understanding, her eligibility would be challenged because the Constitution isn’t clear on the interpretation of citizenship and most likely ultimately would be heard by a more conservative SCOTUS. Much like Ted Cruz/ John McCain’s were up for interpretation, even though they were accepted by the mainstream GOP. But because Tammy isn’t a white man, let’s be honest, it’d be challenged. How that challenge would play out is debatable, although I’d hope that she’d be considered eligible bc I love her and do think she’d be a fantastic president. But I wouldn’t put it past the GOP to muddy the waters enough to fuck everything up.

[dc2london]

Dec 7, 2019 18:52:09 GMT -6 cnf said:

Dec 7, 2019 16:57:02 GMT -6 Uncaripswife said:

Damnit I wish a pollster would ask me about Booker or Castro.

Seriously. How do I get on polling lists? I've never been polled. It feels unfair to say that X number of people support Y when the amount of people, and groups of people polled, are so limited

I have only been polled once. It was in 2007. They asked me to rate W on a scale from 1-10.

I said "negative 20."

The pollster audibly giggled.

[blurnette989]

Dec 7, 2019 20:10:54 GMT -6 dc2london said:

Dec 7, 2019 18:52:09 GMT -6 cnf said:

Seriously. How do I get on polling lists? I've never been polled. It feels unfair to say that X number of people support Y when the amount of people, and groups of people polled, are so limited

I have only been polled once. It was in 2007. They asked me to rate W on a scale from 1-10.

I said "negative 20."

The pollster audibly giggled.

I bet that pollster sits back from time to time and wonders how you'd answer that question now, about 45. I can imagine them in their robe just thinking of the fun things you might say.

[jaygee]

My queen Kamala Harris is paying her campaign staff through the end of the month.

[claudia]

Dec 7, 2019 16:41:41 GMT -6 greykitty said:

CNN reporting that Booker's contributions have surged this last week, but he may not have the polling he needed to qualify for the next debate.

www.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/cory-booker-fundraising-surge/index.html

Out of curiosity, how are the polls conducted? Could we be keeping people off the debate stage based on old polling models that don’t completely work with changing technology, such as phone polls?

I’m so torn because I obviously get the need to reduce who is on the stage (even with 10 it was hard for them to get tIke) but on the other hand are we tilting the field toward an older demographic that doesn’t reflect the party accurately?

[Uncaripswife]

Dec 8, 2019 17:52:21 GMT -6 claudia said:

Dec 7, 2019 16:41:41 GMT -6 greykitty said:

CNN reporting that Booker's contributions have surged this last week, but he may not have the polling he needed to qualify for the next debate.

www.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/cory-booker-fundraising-surge/index.html

Out of curiosity, how are the polls conducted? Could we be keeping people off the debate stage based on old polling models that don’t completely work with changing technology, such as phone polls?

I’m so torn because I obviously get the need to reduce who is on the stage (even with 10 it was hard for them to get tIke) but on the other hand are we tilting the field toward an older demographic that doesn’t reflect the party accurately?

I don't know the answer but I think about this a lot. Probably too much. I'm convinced that the only people who answer polls and surveys are people over age 50 with a land line.

[dc2london]

Gallup specifically uses both landline and cell phones for polling, so I would assume other pollsters do too. But I still feel like you're getting an artificial sampling bc younger people are less likely to answer a call from an unknown number. I have experienced this during phone banking too.

[byjove]

Dec 9, 2019 7:22:17 GMT -6 dc2london said:

Gallup specifically uses both landline and cell phones for polling, so I would assume other pollsters do too. But I still feel like you're getting an artificial sampling bc younger people are less likely to answer a call from an unknown number. I have experienced this during phone banking too.

Would the call show up as potential spam on a cell phone, do you know? 

[notblanche]

I'm on a poll list for Civiqs; I get short digital surveys by email every so often but they're primarily issue focused. I wish they would ask me about the primary.

[dc2london]

Dec 9, 2019 8:38:14 GMT -6 byjove said:

Dec 9, 2019 7:22:17 GMT -6 dc2london said:

Gallup specifically uses both landline and cell phones for polling, so I would assume other pollsters do too. But I still feel like you're getting an artificial sampling bc younger people are less likely to answer a call from an unknown number. I have experienced this during phone banking too.

Would the call show up as potential spam on a cell phone, do you know? 

probably not bc it's not a robocall? But I really don't know. 

[claudia]

Dec 9, 2019 7:22:17 GMT -6 dc2london said:

Gallup specifically uses both landline and cell phones for polling, so I would assume other pollsters do too. But I still feel like you're getting an artificial sampling bc younger people are less likely to answer a call from an unknown number. I have experienced this during phone banking too.

I agree.  Again, I'm not trying to just criticize the DNC current system without an alternative, but I'm just uncomfortable with the way the debate qualification is shaping up.

[ldubhawksfan]

Dec 9, 2019 7:22:17 GMT -6 dc2london said:

Gallup specifically uses both landline and cell phones for polling, so I would assume other pollsters do too. But I still feel like you're getting an artificial sampling bc younger people are less likely to answer a call from an unknown number. I have experienced this during phone banking too.

Damn, I hadn’t thought about this when I ignore any number I don’t recognize.

[dc2london]

THANK YOU Alyssa Mastromonaco.

It is *positively silly* to pretend like the only viable candidate for POTUS is someone who took a vow of poverty for their entire lives before running for POTUS. It's not a piety contest.
we are really getting in the weeds with some of this stuff.

[punker1212]

Heyyy... is it weird if I ask if I can go here? I mostly lurk in GD and have never been on this board before. But, politics is my number one hobby and no one in my life loves talking about it the way I do. Y’all seem fun and smart.

Quick question- not a lot of Bernie love around here? I’m a big supporter. I used to skip classes in high school to watch him on CSPAN2 and was thrilled to see him announce for 2016. I was undecided at the beginning of the 2020 primary but he had me again after the first debate. I will of course enthusiastically support whomever takes the nomination, and I love listening to Warren go deep on policy, but Bernie’s authenticity and commitment to keeping big money out just gets me.

So hi! Why no Bernie love? Which is cool, I’m just curious.

[dc2london]

punker1212 welcome!! Hi!

Speaking only for myself, I find Bernie a compelling candidate but take issue with parts of his voting record (votes against the Brady bill, for one). But I would be thrilled to vote for him if he is the nominee.

[punker1212]

That makes sense. I should also say I’m in Michigan and Bernie generally gets a lot of love here. Not from the Trump supporters, though. I’m now in a rural area that LOVES Trump. Yowsa.

[Rebel]

Bernie is a shady motherfucker. lol
(ETA- this was too harsh. Sorry, it’s been a long day. I don’t like him personally and that came out here where instead I should have just given facts. Sorry!)



(Disclaimer, of course I will vote for him if he gets the nom)

He had several women come forward after his 2016 bid with complaints about sexual harassment and sexism within his campaign staff.

He has had issues both within his campaign and from supporters with racism. Which, I get he can’t control his supporters but he should speak out- and doesn’t.
Ex: Stacy Abrams was chosen by the Dem party to give a response to Trumps SOTU. And Bernie thought that wasn’t good enough and gave his own. Because apparently whatever a black woman has to say isn’t as important as what HE has to say.
He also subscribed to the “I don’t see color/sexuality/gender” train or thought and this is hugely problematic and dismisses the privileges he receives because he is a cis White male.

He has defended communist governments and berates reporters when asked about it, rather than calmly explaining his thinking.

He isn’t a Democrat. He is an independent but runs on the Dem ticket.

These are just the things off the top of my head.

Also. I am OVER old white men as presidents. They all have issues with sexism and racism. Seriously, it seems like every one of them does.

Can you share why you like Bernie instead of EW (as their policies are somewhat similar)?

[dc2london]

Dec 10, 2019 19:26:58 GMT -6 punker1212 said:

That makes sense. I should also say I’m in Michigan and Bernie generally gets a lot of love here. Not from the Trump supporters, though. I’m now in a rural area that LOVES Trump. Yowsa.

My sister and my IL's live in MI. There does seem (anecdotally) to be a good bit of Bernie support there.
Now I'm v curious where in MI....

[punker1212]

I totally take your points about his issues about acting like he doesn’t see color, his All Lives Matter pivot etc. thank you for making them. I agree that these old white dudes all have this stuff in their backgrounds, but I think he genuinely listens and learns?

Regarding Bernie vs Warren, I really do like her, but bottom line is I lean democratic socialist vs capitalist, so his policies appeal to me. Even the fact that he isn’t a democrat is a plus for me. I’ve always been independent and self identified as progressive. I only registered after the 2016 election as a democrat with the hope to add to the party, knowing that third parties in our system are such a... challenge.

I guess I’ve always been pie in the sky, like Bernie himself.

[jaygee]

I’ll just +1 to everything Rebel said.

I will say that in the 2016 election I was initially glad he ran. I liked how he pushed the dem party as a whole more to the left. And he did engage new voters. My uncle is 65 years old and had never been politically active before and fell in love with Bernie. He’s now hard core dem and Bernie is his favorite but he will vote for the nominee.

Anyways, like I said initially I liked that he was in the race but it really bugged me that he stayed in too long and didn’t support Hillary as much as he should have (should have been how Hillary supported Obama in 2008).

Then since 2016 I have learned a lot about him that I just don’t care for. He’s kind of a grifter. And I know he’s a grifter with better motives than T, but still.

I like some of his ideas but frankly a lot seem impractical. And he doesn’t have the best track record of getting things done. Also, not to be an ageist but I am concerned about his age and health. I don’t know that he’s fit for office and that’s a concern for me.

[Ls2012]

Hi, punker1212, and welcome!

*waves from the SW corner of mitten*

As for Bernie, I sit on Rebel's bench. Not that I wouldn't vote for him, but I think there are better options.

[jkjacq]

Welcome punker1212 we like new people!
I’ll plus whatever to dc, rebel and jaygee Bernie thoughts

I’ll vote for him if he’s the nominee but I won’t like it. 😁