Ukraine 🇺🇦

[blurnette989]

Feb 24, 2022 9:16:51 GMT -6 cmb said:

Feb 24, 2022 9:11:58 GMT -6 blurnette989 said:

i love when people talk all sexy science.

This stuff is my day job 🤷🏼‍♀️ LD 50/60 is code for lethal dose to 50% at 60 days… and it isn’t going to be a pretty death either.

And the new containment dome is designed to follow the structures of our spent fuel storage, which in turn are designed to withstand all kinds of explosives. They literally fly planes into these things to test them. The planes are destroyed while the containment holds fast and without failure.

It’s quite fascinating actually.

i joke, but am genuinely appreciative of the knowledge share.

[treeofheaven]

My mom is pulling cash to have on hand in case of cyber attacks and I don't know whether to laugh or follow suit.

[4PrivetDrive]

Feb 24, 2022 9:59:02 GMT -6 crimsonandclover said:

Feb 24, 2022 9:52:40 GMT -6 4PrivetDrive said:

*snip* (sorry, missed the PDQ!!)

Vehicles fueled and gas cans are not because of war, it's because Russia is a huge exporter of natural gas and petroleum. If sanctions hit those, things are going to get very expensive. Now that the EU has torpedoed Nordstream (holy crap), gas prices are skyrocketing here. I repeat, though, it's not because of an imminent war between Russia and the EU/US. It's because of sanctions and Russia's influence on OPEC+ (oil-producing countries not in OPEC). Getting shelf-stable food is again because of supply issues due to oil and gas prices. If oil costs a fortune, shipping is going to slow down.

Thanks!!
For the snip and for the information. It’s all just so nerve wracking

[origami]

Yeah, those of us in the US, gas legally has to be sold at listed price until a refuel happens so I'll be filling my cars today and might suggest it. Prices are possibly about to get outrageous.

[jkjacq]

Feb 24, 2022 9:41:53 GMT -6 crimsonandclover said:

Feb 24, 2022 9:18:53 GMT -6 willow said:

Those of you who know international defense etc better than me… Is this going to lead to our troops going over for another war? Fuck the thought alone just makes me so anxious.

My stomach has been in permanent knots since yesterday. I can’t even imagine being Ukrainian citizens right now.

"Just" Ukraine? No. There are some extended scenarios that would require a definite yes (Baltic states, for example, which are NATO and EU members) but I can't even go there with my thoughts right now. I think this will lead to a NATO troop build-up on the NATO/EU borders. Some of the PfP countries might also push for joining NATO, although NATO probably won't accept them as full members because that would seriously piss off Russia (if Georgia, for example, joined) and might actually cause a direct confrontation between the west and Russia.

The US and EU have been pretty clear that they would help Ukraine with arms and funds but not with troops. Russia has no interest in confronting US/EU troops directly, but it was pretty much guaranteed that wouldn't happen in Ukraine. What needs to happen to *prevent* a war, in my personal but somewhat informed opinion, is NATO troops need to be sent to the Baltic states, Finland, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (might be a very hard sell), and Romania. Moldova's got a similar problem as Ukraine in terms of a pro-Russian minority (Transnistria), so I can definitely see that becoming another target. Then Putin would probably turn his focus to the Caucasus. Again - he attacked Ukraine because he knew he would not directly confront NATO troops.

ETA: To clarify where I'm getting this, my PhD is in international peacekeeping with an MA in peace and conflict studies, but Eastern Europe is not my area of expertise, so I'm a little shaky on political situations there. The conclusions about how international wars are started and/or prevented are well-founded, though.

I'm so glad you're here!! Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.

[addymac]

Feb 24, 2022 9:41:53 GMT -6 crimsonandclover said:

Feb 24, 2022 9:18:53 GMT -6 willow said:

Those of you who know international defense etc better than me… Is this going to lead to our troops going over for another war? Fuck the thought alone just makes me so anxious.

My stomach has been in permanent knots since yesterday. I can’t even imagine being Ukrainian citizens right now.

"Just" Ukraine? No. There are some extended scenarios that would require a definite yes (Baltic states, for example, which are NATO and EU members) but I can't even go there with my thoughts right now. I think this will lead to a NATO troop build-up on the NATO/EU borders. Some of the PfP countries might also push for joining NATO, although NATO probably won't accept them as full members because that would seriously piss off Russia (if Georgia, for example, joined) and might actually cause a direct confrontation between the west and Russia.

The US and EU have been pretty clear that they would help Ukraine with arms and funds but not with troops. Russia has no interest in confronting US/EU troops directly, but it was pretty much guaranteed that wouldn't happen in Ukraine. What needs to happen to *prevent* a war, in my personal but somewhat informed opinion, is NATO troops need to be sent to the Baltic states, Finland, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (might be a very hard sell), and Romania. Moldova's got a similar problem as Ukraine in terms of a pro-Russian minority (Transnistria), so I can definitely see that becoming another target. Then Putin would probably turn his focus to the Caucasus. Again - he attacked Ukraine because he knew he would not directly confront NATO troops.

ETA: To clarify where I'm getting this, my PhD is in international peacekeeping with an MA in peace and conflict studies, but Eastern Europe is not my area of expertise, so I'm a little shaky on political situations there. The conclusions about how international wars are started and/or prevented are well-founded, though.

I love how diverse our knowledge on this board is. Y’all are so impressive.

[willow]

addymac Agreed. I need the calm and rational voices because my brain is not friendly to me

[addymac]

Feb 24, 2022 10:11:42 GMT -6 willow said:

addymac Agreed. I need the calm and rational voices because my brain is not friendly to me

Same. I’m at work today all day and I just want to throw up and I have to keep reminding myself to take deep breaths as I feel my HR increase.

[koko]

Feb 24, 2022 10:04:59 GMT -6 treeofheaven said:

My mom is pulling cash to have on hand in case of cyber attacks and I don't know whether to laugh or follow suit.

I feel like some cash is always good to have on hand if you can afford to do so.

[crimsonandclover]

Feb 24, 2022 10:11:00 GMT -6 addymac said:

Feb 24, 2022 9:41:53 GMT -6 crimsonandclover said:

"Just" Ukraine? No.

I love how diverse our knowledge on this board is. Y’all are so impressive.

Seriously. TIL that the Chernobyl material half-life means it's still super dangerous. I also loved the contributions from lemon (not tagging intentionally) on drug trials, from seadragon on other sciency stuff, and tons of others - you guys are awesome. I kinda wish my knowledge wasn't necessary, but I do know quite a bit about how wars start and end, and I'm truly convinced this will not directly cause a world war, so if I can help calm down some anxiety, I'm here for it.

[cmb]

Feb 24, 2022 10:04:02 GMT -6 blurnette989 said:

Feb 24, 2022 9:16:51 GMT -6 cmb said:

This stuff is my day job 🤷🏼‍♀️ LD 50/60 is code for lethal dose to 50% at 60 days… and it isn’t going to be a pretty death either.

And the new containment dome is designed to follow the structures of our spent fuel storage, which in turn are designed to withstand all kinds of explosives. They literally fly planes into these things to test them. The planes are destroyed while the containment holds fast and without failure.

It’s quite fascinating actually.

i joke, but am genuinely appreciative of the knowledge share.

I know 🙃 it’s not often my day job can be of use! It’s very niche and most people don’t have any interest in it lol

I can talk radiological physics and health all day. Chernobyl and the criticality accidents here, along with the rumors on some, are what got me to go into this field.

I’ll bow out now with my nerdiness

[richard]

I don't have a good handle on this: is there any hope for Ukraine to exist as it did last week? They're fighting on their own, asking citizens to fight...it just feels like physically there's no chance and Russia will be able to take over the government.

If sanctions aren't going to happen in a way that are crippling to Russia because of fears about what it would do to other economies (or for whatever other reason they won't go full-tilt), then it just is what it is?

[byjove]

The US has already sent a not small amount of troops to that general area.

[richard]

And longer-term is Russia just going to occupy Ukraine with troops to prop up a government? If not, what is the point of this on Putin's part?

[crimsonandclover]

Feb 24, 2022 10:41:07 GMT -6 richard said:

And longer-term is Russia just going to occupy Ukraine with troops to prop up a government? If not, what is the point of this on Putin's part?

There really is a large pro-Russian faction in Ukraine. I'm guessing Putin will aim to get them in power and set up a puppet government, so Ukraine will once again be "independent" and the "poor oppressed pro-Russian minority" (this is in the words of Putin, mind you, not my own) will be "liberated". And the pro-Ukrainian/EU population will be hunted down and thrown in prison or killed like in Russia. <= That is not a qualified opinion, just a personal one. I don't know all that much about Ukrainian politics other than that there is a split between pro-EU and pro-Russia factions.

[jkjacq]

Feb 24, 2022 10:46:30 GMT -6 crimsonandclover said:

Feb 24, 2022 10:41:07 GMT -6 richard said:

And longer-term is Russia just going to occupy Ukraine with troops to prop up a government? If not, what is the point of this on Putin's part?

There really is a large pro-Russian faction in Ukraine. I'm guessing Putin will aim to get them in power and set up a puppet government, so Ukraine will once again be "independent" and the "poor oppressed pro-Russian minority" (this is in the words of Putin, mind you, not my own) will be "liberated". And the pro-Ukrainian/EU population will be hunted down and thrown in prison or killed like in Russia. <= That is not a qualified opinion, just a personal one. I don't know all that much about Ukrainian politics other than that there is a split between pro-EU and pro-Russia factions.

I'm up and down at my desk with coverage but i've caught quick snips of buzzwords like concentration camps, incarceration, etc.   I'm not getting the entire story though.   

[richard]

Feb 24, 2022 10:46:30 GMT -6 crimsonandclover said:

Feb 24, 2022 10:41:07 GMT -6 richard said:

And longer-term is Russia just going to occupy Ukraine with troops to prop up a government? If not, what is the point of this on Putin's part?

There really is a large pro-Russian faction in Ukraine. I'm guessing Putin will aim to get them in power and set up a puppet government, so Ukraine will once again be "independent" and the "poor oppressed pro-Russian minority" (this is in the words of Putin, mind you, not my own) will be "liberated". And the pro-Ukrainian/EU population will be hunted down and thrown in prison or killed like in Russia. <= That is not a qualified opinion, just a personal one. I don't know all that much about Ukrainian politics other than that there is a split between pro-EU and pro-Russia factions.

It almost feels like Putin is going to have to be willing to back up a minority government with military support and then could be looking at an insurgency-backed-by-the-US/NATO type situation. 

[richard]

Feb 24, 2022 10:40:55 GMT -6 byjove said:

The US has already sent a not small amount of troops to that general area.

[byjove]

poof

[notblanche]

Feb 24, 2022 7:10:35 GMT -6 @icedtea said:

I feel like I'm going to throw up. I don't know how to focus on work.

I am here and not working. I can't.

[richard]

So fucked up.

"Mr. Navalny’s supporters said they believed the trial was deliberately scheduled to coincide with the crisis to divert attention away from his case."

Aleksei A. Navalny, the jailed Russian opposition leader, faces charges of embezzlement and contempt of court that could extend his time in jail by 15 years.

link to article

[richard]

UK sanctions:

[crimsonandclover]

Feb 24, 2022 11:08:41 GMT -6 byjove said:

*snip* We are absolutely gearing up.

Good - and that's to prevent a war, not to start one. Of course it makes the situation more precarious if NATO troops are facing off with Russian or Russian-backed troops across a border, but in this case it will prevent a war, not cause one (unless somebody does something stupid, of course, but I'm talking about the most probable scenario). Putin would have lost a ton of face if he hadn't gone into Ukraine, but he hasn't said anything yet about other countries. If NATO ramps up its presence there *now*, before Putin sets his eyes on his next possible target, then I don't think he'll risk talking a big game about them. There are easier targets. He is a dictator through and through, but he's not ignorant like the Cheetoh.

[byjove]

Feb 24, 2022 11:26:42 GMT -6 crimsonandclover said:

Feb 24, 2022 11:08:41 GMT -6 byjove said:

*snip* We are absolutely gearing up.

Good - and that's to prevent a war, not to start one. Of course it makes the situation more precarious if NATO troops are facing off with Russian or Russian-backed troops across a border, but in this case it will prevent a war, not cause one (unless somebody does something stupid, of course, but I'm talking about the most probable scenario). Putin would have lost a ton of face if he hadn't gone into Ukraine, but he hasn't said anything yet about other countries. If NATO ramps up its presence there *now*, before Putin sets his eyes on his next possible target, then I don't think he'll risk talking a big game about them. There are easier targets. He is a dictator through and through, but he's not ignorant like the Cheetoh.

Yes, this is definitely something that they expected and have been planning for.

[notblanche]

Biden's address will happen at 1:30 ET


Will be live on YouTube here:

[jaygee]

Our boy makes a good point.

[origami]

[jaygee]

Feb 24, 2022 11:36:28 GMT -6 origami said:

I don’t have much hope right now but this is helping keep a small flicker alive. Unfortunately I just don’t think Putin cares. He is singularly focused.

[notexactly]

Feb 24, 2022 9:39:32 GMT -6 Sweetjane said:

Feb 24, 2022 9:16:23 GMT -6 notexactly said:

I don't think sanctions will work. I'm sick to my stomach over this.

I was thinking about you earlier today. I cannot begin to imagine how this feels for you.
So glad you are here.

Honestly, I'm just going to say I know this country has its own problems, but I am so glad to be here, too (and here in general).

[RajahMD]

This situation has finally gotten me to push through my mental block regarding current events. I'm scared shitless for what this means for the future of the whole world.

But y'all are already helping me calm down. It seems like Biden is well aware of the potential, so hopefully the world can avoid WWIII.

Thank y'all for being your usual, knowledgeable, awesome selves.