cmb
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Post by cmb on Feb 24, 2022 8:57:31 GMT -6
This doesn't say anything's been destroyed but it does appear they're in Chernobyl. They’re not going to make it far without getting really sick. Pryprat is still at LD 50/60. It’s only been one half life for caesium and strontium. |
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elle
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Post by elle on Feb 24, 2022 8:59:08 GMT -6
Informative thread on SWIFT. Click through for it's entirety.
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Post by blurnette989 on Feb 24, 2022 9:00:33 GMT -6
Thinking of our posters in Europe right now. It's unnerving from a continent away, so I hope you and your families are doing ok! I know that i am safe and highly unlikely to be physically affected by this war. But it is unnerving when you think that Lisbon to Kyiv is like LA to NYC. |
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Post by Sweetjane on Feb 24, 2022 9:03:18 GMT -6
SWIFT could go either way. Reports are Brussels will not cut Russia off.
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elle
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Post by elle on Feb 24, 2022 9:06:59 GMT -6
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dc2london
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Post by dc2london on Feb 24, 2022 9:07:39 GMT -6
President Biden will address the nation at 1230 Eastern time
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richard
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Post by richard on Feb 24, 2022 9:11:53 GMT -6
There are going to be crackdowns on people who are against war/Putin in Russia too. Scary.
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Post by blurnette989 on Feb 24, 2022 9:11:58 GMT -6
This doesn't say anything's been destroyed but it does appear they're in Chernobyl. They’re not going to make it far without getting really sick. Pryprat is still at LD 50/60. It’s only been one half life for caesium and strontium. i love when people talk all sexy science. |
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jaygee
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Post by jaygee on Feb 24, 2022 9:12:43 GMT -6
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elle
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Post by elle on Feb 24, 2022 9:14:05 GMT -6
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Post by notexactly on Feb 24, 2022 9:16:23 GMT -6
I don't think sanctions will work. I'm sick to my stomach over this.
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cmb
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Post by cmb on Feb 24, 2022 9:16:51 GMT -6
They’re not going to make it far without getting really sick. Pryprat is still at LD 50/60. It’s only been one half life for caesium and strontium. i love when people talk all sexy science. This stuff is my day job 🤷🏼♀️ LD 50/60 is code for lethal dose to 50% at 60 days… and it isn’t going to be a pretty death either. And the new containment dome is designed to follow the structures of our spent fuel storage, which in turn are designed to withstand all kinds of explosives. They literally fly planes into these things to test them. The planes are destroyed while the containment holds fast and without failure. It’s quite fascinating actually. |
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Post by newspapers on Feb 24, 2022 9:17:04 GMT -6
This account is a good Twitter follow. She has the credentials and is vetting what she shares. Also recommend Malcolm Nance I followed her in the past few days. Seems like she knows her shit. I told my husband that I was judging the severity of everything by how big the NYTimes font was on the front page. Now it's the big one. I am curious to hear what Biden will say. |
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Post by notexactly on Feb 24, 2022 9:17:12 GMT -6
I feel like I'm going to throw up. I don't know how to focus on work. Same😭 |
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willow
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Post by willow on Feb 24, 2022 9:18:53 GMT -6
Those of you who know international defense etc better than me… Is this going to lead to our troops going over for another war? Fuck the thought alone just makes me so anxious.
My stomach has been in permanent knots since yesterday. I can’t even imagine being Ukrainian citizens right now.
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Post by treeofheaven on Feb 24, 2022 9:27:47 GMT -6
This doesn't say anything's been destroyed but it does appear they're in Chernobyl. They’re not going to make it far without getting really sick. Pryprat is still at LD 50/60. It’s only been one half life for caesium and strontium. Fascinating. How soon would they get sick and what kind of symptoms are we talking? |
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cmb
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Post by cmb on Feb 24, 2022 9:32:23 GMT -6
They’re not going to make it far without getting really sick. Pryprat is still at LD 50/60. It’s only been one half life for caesium and strontium. Fascinating. How soon would they get sick and what kind of symptoms are we talking? It’ll take a few days, but basically, depending on the amount of intake… it can be as simple as extreme anemia and losing blood or severe dehydration that cant be fixed or as drastic as your organs literally melting. It is not a way one would want to go out. There is a way to reverse the effects, but that is kept under lock and key here, and I would be the same in russia as they like to take people out using Pl-239 or Am-241 |
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Post by Sweetjane on Feb 24, 2022 9:39:32 GMT -6
I don't think sanctions will work. I'm sick to my stomach over this. I was thinking about you earlier today. I cannot begin to imagine how this feels for you. So glad you are here. |
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mc13
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Post by mc13 on Feb 24, 2022 9:39:54 GMT -6
Those of you who know international defense etc better than me… Is this going to lead to our troops going over for another war? Fuck the thought alone just makes me so anxious. My stomach has been in permanent knots since yesterday. I can’t even imagine being Ukrainian citizens right now. I hope not but my gut says yes. I’m also so incredibly thankful MH got out of the Marine Corps 3 years ago and that going to war (aka my H having to go) isn’t a concern for my immediate family. |
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Post by crimsonandclover on Feb 24, 2022 9:41:53 GMT -6
Those of you who know international defense etc better than me… Is this going to lead to our troops going over for another war? Fuck the thought alone just makes me so anxious. My stomach has been in permanent knots since yesterday. I can’t even imagine being Ukrainian citizens right now.
"Just" Ukraine? No. There are some extended scenarios that would require a definite yes (Baltic states, for example, which are NATO and EU members) but I can't even go there with my thoughts right now. I think this will lead to a NATO troop build-up on the NATO/EU borders. Some of the PfP countries might also push for joining NATO, although NATO probably won't accept them as full members because that would seriously piss off Russia (if Georgia, for example, joined) and might actually cause a direct confrontation between the west and Russia.
The US and EU have been pretty clear that they would help Ukraine with arms and funds but not with troops. Russia has no interest in confronting US/EU troops directly, but it was pretty much guaranteed that wouldn't happen in Ukraine. What needs to happen to *prevent* a war, in my personal but somewhat informed opinion, is NATO troops need to be sent to the Baltic states, Finland, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (might be a very hard sell), and Romania. Moldova's got a similar problem as Ukraine in terms of a pro-Russian minority (Transnistria), so I can definitely see that becoming another target. Then Putin would probably turn his focus to the Caucasus. Again - he attacked Ukraine because he knew he would not directly confront NATO troops.
ETA: To clarify where I'm getting this, my PhD is in international peacekeeping with an MA in peace and conflict studies, but Eastern Europe is not my area of expertise, so I'm a little shaky on political situations there. The conclusions about how international wars are started and/or prevented are well-founded, though.
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willow
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Post by willow on Feb 24, 2022 9:42:02 GMT -6
Those of you who know international defense etc better than me… Is this going to lead to our troops going over for another war? Fuck the thought alone just makes me so anxious. My stomach has been in permanent knots since yesterday. I can’t even imagine being Ukrainian citizens right now. I hope not but my gut says yes. I’m also so incredibly thankful MH got out of the Marine Corps 3 years ago and that going to war isn’t a concern for my immediate family. I can’t decide if going on Reddit made me feel better or worse lol. Many people saying they don’t see us or other NATO countries getting directly involved in the fighting and then others saying there is no other choice but us. At least the majority of people are saying they think nuclear weapons would be an absolute last resort even for Putin because he knows the second he launched one at a nato country, Moscow would be done. |
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richard
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Post by richard on Feb 24, 2022 9:42:18 GMT -6
I don't think sanctions will work. I'm sick to my stomach over this. I was thinking about you earlier today. I cannot begin to imagine how this feels for you. So glad you are here. Same. Take care of yourself notexactly! |
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origami
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Post by origami on Feb 24, 2022 9:44:17 GMT -6
Those of you who know international defense etc better than me… Is this going to lead to our troops going over for another war? Fuck the thought alone just makes me so anxious. My stomach has been in permanent knots since yesterday. I can’t even imagine being Ukrainian citizens right now. I think we will last resort it but I also think it's a distinct possibility. NATO forces would likely go first. Caveat: I'm also no expert. Just following those threads on twitter. |
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willow
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Post by willow on Feb 24, 2022 9:44:36 GMT -6
crimsonandclover I appreciate your well thought out response. All of that makes sense as well. Fucking hell, doesn’t make it any better for Ukraine though.
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richard
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Post by richard on Feb 24, 2022 9:46:49 GMT -6
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Post by crimsonandclover on Feb 24, 2022 9:51:02 GMT -6
At this point I don’t think they care. Other than to use their position as a podium to keep justifying and disinformationing They had tacit US support from tfg for four years and were able to plan this pretty throughly Remember they were a G7 member until Obama years other than again with tfg they didn’t fight very hard to rejoin there
They care because of their veto power. Reputation is still huge in international relations, and if the UN is condemning them left and right, they'll look very bad.
That being said, this is never going to happen. For years and years there was a debate about whether Taiwan or the PRC should hold the UNSC seat for China - as in, from 1949 until 1971 when the US and other countries finally recognized the PRC and it took the UNSC seat. That was actually a fairly strong case for Taiwan, too, because it actually was the government that held the seat and had just moved to another part of the territory. I don't see the argument with USSR/Russia. Russia has been recognized as the de facto successor state of the USSR in many ways including getting the Soviet UNSC seat without a fight and taking on all international treaty obligations of the USSR. Changing that now is not going to happen.
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origami
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Post by origami on Feb 24, 2022 9:52:08 GMT -6
Sweden and Finland attending the NATO summit tomorrow IS notable though. It looks like Europe is gearing up for the potential for a fight. He won't stop at Ukraine if he wins and I think they all know that quite intimately.
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Post by 4PrivetDrive on Feb 24, 2022 9:52:40 GMT -6
Those of you who know international defense etc better than me… Is this going to lead to our troops going over for another war? Fuck the thought alone just makes me so anxious. My stomach has been in permanent knots since yesterday. I can’t even imagine being Ukrainian citizens right now. Snippy snip. So that did nothing for my anxiety about all of this. And it’s so surreal because I’m going to a concert tonight in Minneapolis. Like everything is normal. |
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elle
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Post by elle on Feb 24, 2022 9:57:22 GMT -6
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Post by crimsonandclover on Feb 24, 2022 9:59:02 GMT -6
Those of you who know international defense etc better than me… Is this going to lead to our troops going over for another war? Fuck the thought alone just makes me so anxious. My stomach has been in permanent knots since yesterday. I can’t even imagine being Ukrainian citizens right now. *snip* (sorry, missed the PDQ!!)
Vehicles fueled and gas cans are not because of war, it's because Russia is a huge exporter of natural gas and petroleum. If sanctions hit those, things are going to get very expensive. Now that the EU has torpedoed Nordstream (holy crap), gas prices are skyrocketing here. I repeat, though, it's not because of an imminent war between Russia and the EU/US. It's because of sanctions and Russia's influence on OPEC+ (oil-producing countries not in OPEC). Getting shelf-stable food is again because of supply issues due to oil and gas prices. If oil costs a fortune, shipping is going to slow down.
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